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The outlook for the global economy in the second half of the year is proving more positive than expected around April, when the protectionist shock from the US economy materialized.

After the fastest monetary tightening cycle in decades (2022-2023), the main central banks have begun a process of lowering interest rates, with the “last mile” characterized by a cautious approach.

The focus of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy meeting was not so much on the interest rate decision (already priced in by analysts and markets, who expected the deposit rate to be unchanged at 2%), as on the hints that Christine Lagarde could give regarding what the central bank will do next.

The ECB kept rates unchanged and, with Lagarde’s slightly hawkish tone, reinforced the view that current levels likely mark the end of the cycle. The new projections point to more balanced risks, supported by the US–EU trade agreement.

The recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar—more than 10% since the lows at the beginning of the year—has shifted the price competitiveness of Spanish companies and the purchasing power of households.

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

The most interesting thing about last week’s ECB meeting was not the decision made, but the promise of hints as to what it might do next. Ultimately, the 25-basis point cut in the main reference rates had already been widely priced in by analysts and markets.