Retail sales

2023 GDP growth concluded at 5.2%, in line with expectation and higher than 3% in 2022. We provide growth and policy outlook of China in 2024.

The August real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled.

Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.

We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.

Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…

The industrial production (IP) grew by 2% (WDA YoY) in October in line with our forecasts (2%) but slightly above the market call (1.5%). After contracting by 3.2% in the 3Q, IP’s return to growth, although slightly, confirming our expectations of a still modest recovery in 4Q.