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August 16, 2018

China | Growth slowdown continues

July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-gro…

November 8, 2017

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecas…

October 9, 2017

Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

August 8, 2017

Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…

December 9, 2016

Turkey: Activity starts to recover

The industrial production (IP) grew by 2% (WDA YoY) in October in line with our forecasts (2%) but slightly above the market call (1.5%). After contracting by 3.2% in the 3Q, IP’s return to growth, although slightly, confirming our expectations of a still modest recovery in 4Q.

April 27, 2016

Spain | The rise in retail sales was moderate in 1Q16 despite the upturn in March

Once corrected for the stationary variations of each month, retail sales grew in March by 0.5% in respect to February, which was two percentage points more than expected, boosted by the sales in durable goods sales. The rise in sales was slowed by up to 0,8% in the first quarter and anticipates a lower level of dynamism in …

April 13, 2016

U.S. | Autos drag down total retail sales in March

Retail sales declined 0.3% MoM, while core (ex-auto, ex-gas) sales increased 0.1% MoM. Declines were limited to autos, clothing, restaurants, and nonstore retailers. Job gains should help consumer spending improve going forward
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November 30, 2015

Spain | Retail sales got off to a positive start in 4Q15

After seasonal adjustments, retail sales at constant prices grew in October in line with forecasts. Food, personal equipment and household equipment are responsible for turnover's increase