Retail sales latest publications
Industrial Production (IP) in May contracted by 20% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, which signals a gradual recovery after the sharp drop of 31% in April. The month-on-month recovery at 17% also proved to be the strongest monthly increase historically. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020.
The unprecedented increase in unemployment, large-scale transition to work from home, and lower activity in many face-to-face service industries are leading to demand destruction, higher vacancy rates and rent declines in the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sector.
Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-gro…
Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecas…
In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…