Turkey | Fast recovery in May industrial production

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) in May contracted by 20% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, which signals a gradual recovery after the sharp drop of 31% in April. The month-on-month recovery at 17% also proved to be the strongest monthly increase historically. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020.

Key points

• Key points:
• Retail sales remained relatively weak by contracting at 17% yoy, which corresponds to a monthly pick-up of 4%
• Since May data carry the negative impact of calendar days, the unadjusted figures showed deeper contractions, which will be reversed in June.
• Our Big Data proxies and other high frequency indicators have already signaled, a stronger recovery pattern is on the way since mid-June.
• Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of -8.2% (86% info) in May and -7.7% in June (52% info) which is followed by a faster recovery in July with -5% (33% info).

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