Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Retail sales also contracted by 0.2% in yearly terms.
• Our Big Data indices for both Consumption and Investment have showed a sizeable adjustment till mid-April, but they are currently consolidating the bottoming-out process with some recent acceleration as some of the restrictions have started to be lifted.
• Accordingly, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index in Bloomberg) has adjusted rapidly to near 0% as of April (52% of info) from a growth rate of 5.5% yoy for 1Q20 (96% of info).

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