Macroeconomic Analysis

The minimum wage debate in Peru presents two views: the competitive one, warning of unemployment and informality risks, and the non-competitive market perspective. Given Peru's low productivity and high informality, excessive hikes could harm the most vulnerable workers in the labor market.

Consumer inflation came in at 1.84% m/m, below our forecast (2.3%) and consensus (2.2%), bringing annual inflation down to 29.7%, also on base effects. Energy outlook poses upside risks, while weaker demand provides some offset. We keep our 30% year-end inflation forecast, with slight downside risk after the latest print.

El Niño 2026–27 could be exceptional, but its impact will not depend on intensity alone: local climate conditions, timing, and sectoral exposure will be key. Granular analysis can help anticipate risks, while adaptation can mitigate their effects

In August, the unemployment rate stood at 9.4%, up from 8.6% in August 2025, interrupting the year-on-year declines observed month after month over the past two years. Meanwhile, employment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, equivalent to a loss of 126,000 jobs.

Credit growth continues to lose momentum as macroprudential restrictions remain the key sector driver. We continue to expect 2026 ROE at around 25%, with risks tilted to the downside. Further decline in TL funding costs should support margins, although slower loan growth and rising costs may constrain the ROE recovery.

Social Security affiliation increased by 92,300 people and unemployment by 23,600. Adjusted for seasonality, an increase of 103,000 contributors and 9,000 unemployed people is estimated. In 3Q26, employment and unemployment increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter CVEC due to the extraordinary regularization of immigrants.

Argentina establishes itself as a key player in the global agricultural market, excelling in the production of soybeans, corn, wheat, and sunflower. The sector is a crucial source of foreign currency, with agricultural complexes projected to contribute 42% of the country's total exports in 2026.