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April 30, 2025
The Board of Banrep reduced the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9.25% in April. This decision was unanimous. On this occasion, they highlighted that inflation and inflation expectations derived from the debt markets declined.
April 29, 2025
The economy slowed and grew less than expected in Q1 2025 (0.6% q/q), mainly due to sluggish consumption and weaker-than-estimated investment momentum. Growth was accompanied by higher employment, although with fewer hours worked and mixed signals on productivity.
April 29, 2025
BBVA Research presents its new real estate sector report in two presentations: the first analyzes sales, supply, prices, rentals, and demographics; the second focuses on the structure of construction, financing, and sustainability. It includes sales projections, drivers, and trends through 2026.
April 25, 2025
Colombia aims to cut its fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, but success depends on swift institutional reforms, clear spending plans, and transparent financing. In a volatile global context, timely and credible messages are key to maintaining investor confidence.
April 25, 2025
We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.
April 22, 2025
The "Plan Mexico" is emerging as a key initiative to mitigate the tariff shock and reposition the country as an attractive destination for investment. Mexico holds a relatively favorable position among the five largest exporters to the United States, which could revitalize Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows.
April 21, 2025
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.7% growth in March (MoM), following the zero growth recorded the previous month. By component, both spending on goods and services registered positive variations (goods 1.5%, services 2.4%).
April 17, 2025
The CBRT hiked the policy rate by 350bps to 46%, surprising the consensus of no change, and narrowed down the interest rate corridor to 44.5%-49%. Contrary to previous assessments of recent shocks as transitory, the CBRT becomes more prudent hiking its main tool and reaching an availability of the funding rate up to 49%.
April 17, 2025
High frequency data for 1Q25 point that the q/q growth will likely remain steady as in 4Q24, supported by the domestic demand. Despite the uncertainty on trade wars and recent tightening in financial conditions, we evaluate risks as balanced on our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, given the strong buffer of 1Q25 growth.
April 15, 2025
In February, GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year, below the market consensus (3.4%), affected by a negative base effect. The non-primary component grew 2.5%, with construction being the most notable. The primary component grew 2.3%, driven by fishing and agriculture. Mining contracted due to lower gold and zinc production.
April 14, 2025
Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.
