Publications

Hard data show a faster deceleration in 4Q25, suggesting an annual GDP growth of around 3% and implying modest downside risk on our 3.7% forecast for 2025. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4%, but evaluate risks might turn upside given the easing bias of the CBRT and our expectation of a neutral fiscal balance.

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.

The effort to increase the military and security capabilities Europe needs will be more sustainable the more it supports economic growth.

Formal employment began 2026 with a monthly decline and the weakest start since 2009, confirming slower momentum. Low confidence and falling investment are holding back the recovery in employment, while real wages continue to support the wage bill and consumption.

Colombia’s GDP rose 2.6% in 2025 in a domestic-demand rebound. Final consumption grew 4.2%, while investment was uneven—equipment surged but construction fell. Net exports subtracted as imports (+8.4%) outpaced exports (+1.8%).

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.7% MoM decline in January (real, sa), extending December’s weakness, driven by lower spending on goods (-0.5% MoM).

Population aging will make immigration necessary in the coming years. This should be compatible with an effort to diversify the sources of growth.