Latin America | El Niño and the primary sector in Latin America

El Niño 2026–27 could be exceptional, but its impact will not depend on intensity alone: local climate conditions, timing, and sectoral exposure will be key. Granular analysis can help anticipate risks, while adaptation can mitigate their effects

Key points

• Key points:
• Temperature and water: El Niño alters temperatures and, above all, the water cycle, with highly heterogeneous effects across geographies and seasons; in Peru, coastal ocean conditions add a specific transmission channel
• Same El Niño, different impacts: the primary sector is the main transmission channel: increased rainfall benefits Argentina’s agricultural sector; drought and heat adversely affect agriculture and energy in Colombia; while fisheries, agriculture, and infrastructure bear the greatest risks in Peru.
• Granularity for risk management: national-level analysis masks significant regional differences. Combining climate hazards with productive exposure helps identify hotspots, monitor risks, and develop early-warning systems.
• Adaptation, innovation, and climate change: global warming can amplify the hydrological anomalies associated with El Niño, but the economic damage is not predetermined: productivity, investment, technology, water management, and infrastructure strengthen adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability

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