Argentina | July inflation was 1.9% m/m, the third consecutive month below 2%

Summary

Inflation averaged 1.7% m/m in the last quarter, the lowest level in eight years (22% annualized). The monthly figure is in line with expectations (BBVA: 1.8%, REM-BCRA: 1.8%), so we maintain our projection of 28% y/y for 2025.

Key points

• Key points:
• The main positive data came from core inflation, which registered 1.5% m/m (39% y/y), decelerating for the third consecutive month and establishing the lowest monthly value since 2017.
• We expect inflation to exceed 2% m/m in August, driven by the rise in the exchange rate in the last weeks of July. However, we estimate a smaller impact compared to previous devaluation experiences.

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