Publications

June's inflation rate was 1.6% m/m (39.4% y/y), marking the second consecutive month below the 2% m/m level. This scenario indicates a more rapid disinflation process than previously anticipated, leading us to revise our December 2025 inflation forecast downward to 28% y/y from our prior projection of 30% y/y.

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

May’s inflation was 1.5% m/m (43.5% y/y), well below expectations (CB-consensus: 2.1% m/m, BBVAe: 1.9% m/m). Core inflation fell to 2.2% m/m in May.

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

In 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%, driven by consumption and investment, within a context of disinflationary consolidation and fiscal-monetary discipline. However, two key challenges remain: maintaining fiscal austerity during an election year and making significant progress in normalizing the foreign exchange market

February inflation was 2.4% MoM (66.9% YoY), slightly above expectations, and accelerating 0.2 p.p. over January. We expect March inflation to be similar to February.

The automotive industry has shown signs of recovery following the recent recession, with announcements of tax and tariff reductions favoring consumers and projecting an increase in vehicle sales in 2025, driven by enhanced income and improved credit access.

anuary inflation was 2.2% MoM (84.5% YoY), in line with expectations (BBVA: 2.3% and REM-BCRA: 2.3%) and down from 2.7% in December.