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December 2, 2024

Argentina | Real Estate and Construction Outlook 2024

The change of cycle expected by the sector was confirmed. The repeal of the Rent Law, the resurgence of loans, a greater control of inflation and recovering real wages augur a further expansion of the real estate market.

October 11, 2024

Argentina | Inflation was 3.5% MoM in September, the lowest monthly level in 34 months

National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.

October 1, 2024

Argentina Economic Outlook. October 2024

The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.

September 11, 2024

Argentina | August inflation was 4.2% MoM, accelerating in the core component

August inflation was 4.2% m/m and core inflation accelerated again. We revised our 2024 projection from 135% to 130% due to a longer than expected exchange rate crawling peg.

September 11, 2024

Big Data techniques used

Argentina | Forecasting short-term inflation with Random Forest Models

This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.

June 19, 2024

Argentina Economic Outlook. June 2024

After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.