Publications

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

Argentina’s economy kept recovering in Q2 2025, driven by fiscal order, a re-monetization strategy, and a flexible exchange rate scheme. The outlook is still shaped by the electoral context and the challenge of ensuring lasting stability in a volatile global environment.

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

April national inflation was 2.8% m/m (47.3% y/y), placing it below expectations (REM-BCRA: 3.2% m/m, BBVA Research: 3.4%) as a result of a more virtuous exchange rate dynamics -post easing of restrictions- than initially expected.

February inflation was 2.4% MoM (66.9% YoY), slightly above expectations, and accelerating 0.2 p.p. over January. We expect March inflation to be similar to February.

Hydrocarbons remain a key component of both the global and Argentine energy matrix. The development of unconventional resources, led by Vaca Muerta, has revitalized the industry and improved the country's energy balance.. Despite the growth of renewable energies, gas and oil will continue to be fundamental.

anuary inflation was 2.2% MoM (84.5% YoY), in line with expectations (BBVA: 2.3% and REM-BCRA: 2.3%) and down from 2.7% in December.

This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.