Publications

April's CPI posted a 2.6% m/m increase (32.4% y/y, with a 12.3% YTD print for 2026), representing the most significant disinflationary milestone since December 2025. The monthly print was in line with consensus, matching market expectations.

The EU-Mercosur agreement presents a favorable scenario for growth, investment, and trade. Spain maintains a strategic link that sits above the European average, driven by business investment and the supply of key inputs.

March inflation reached 3.4% m/m (32.6% y/y, with a year-to-date cumulative total of 9.4% for 2026), exceeding market expectations (REM-BCRA: 3.0% m/m) for the sixth consecutive month.

Argentina enters 2026 with further progress in macroeconomic stabilization, supported by fiscal balance, prudent monetary policy and greater FX flexibility. Growth is expected to be moderate, inflation to decline, and the recovery to remain uneven, with challenges in employment, reserves and policy sustainability.

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.

Food prices drove headline inflation for the month, while seasonal components hit a 10-month high. Increased forward-looking inertia has prompted us to revise our 2026 projection from 20% to 22%.

The midterm election results reaffirmed social backing for the administration's economic plan, driving an improvement in expectations consistent with our GDP growth forecasts of 4.5% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026. This supports the continuity of the fiscal-monetary anchor and the ongoing disinflation process.