Argentina | June inflation recorded 1.6% m/m, another downside surprise

Summary

June's inflation rate was 1.6% m/m (39.4% y/y), marking the second consecutive month below the 2% m/m level. This scenario indicates a more rapid disinflation process than previously anticipated, leading us to revise our December 2025 inflation forecast downward to 28% y/y from our prior projection of 30% y/y.

Key points

• Key points:
• The primary surprise this month came from core inflation, which registered 1.7% m/m (42% y/y).
• This figure is particularly noteworthy as it marks the first time this component has fallen below the 2% m/m threshold since January 2018 (excluding the pandemic period).

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