Colombia | Inflation began to accelerate in January, reaching 5.35%

Summary

Monthly inflation in January stood at 1.18%, broadly in line with analysts’ expectations (1.16%) and BBVA Research’s forecast (1.21%). As a result, annual inflation rose to 5.35%, representing an increase of 25 basis points compared to December 2025 and marking the beginning of the inflationary process we expect for 2026.

Key points

• Key points:
• The acceleration in headline annual inflation was mainly explained by the non-food basket, whose annual variation reached 5.41%, increasing by 30 bp compared to December 2025.
• Within the non-food basket, services inflation increased by 40 bp, driven by domestic services, meals consumed outside the home, recreational services, and residential property management services. Meanwhile, goods inflation rose by 28 bp, while administered prices increased by 8 bp.
• Inflation accelerated in January as a result of indexation processes, intensified by the 23% increase in the minimum wage. In this context, the services sub-basket—the most sensitive to such adjustments—recorded a significant increase.
• However, goods and regulated prices also rose; in the former case, likely influenced by the economic emergency, which raised taxes on alcoholic beverages and cigarettes.
• Indexation effects tend to be more pronounced during the first four months of the year, peaking in February. Therefore, we expect the inflationary process to continue in February and even intensify.

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