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January 27, 2023
At its January meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 75 bp, bringing it to 12.75%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of a 25 bp increase and 5 in favor of 75 bp.
BBVA Research present the report on the Colombian real estate sector for the year 2022. This edition covers the dynamics and structure of the sector, its prices and costs, financing and interest rates, the non-residential market and the long-term determinants of housing demand.
One of the non-forward-looking tools used for inflation analysis by central banks and academia in general is core inflation, but it may include distortions that lead to misleading conclusions. This paper explores trimmed means as an alternative…
In December, consumption growth reached a real annual variation of 3.8%, higher than the 2.3% reported in November, with an acceleration in both goods and services. Goods contracted by 4.2% and services grew by 7.7%. Spending performance trendi…
In December, monthly inflation rose to 1.26% and annual inflation reached 13.12%, accelerating by 59 bps from the previous month's figure and again exceeding market analysts' expectations of 12.64% (according to Banco de la República's survey …
In November 2022, the national unemployment rate was 9.5% and the urban unemployment rate was 9.1%. With this, the national unemployment rate was 2.0 percentage points below that of the same month in 2021, and the urban unemployment rate was 3.1 percentage points below.
At its December meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 12.0%. Although the vote was mostly for a 100bp increase, there was one vote for a 125bp increase and another for a 25bp increase.
Global growth will continue to decelerate gradually in 2023 and recover thereafter. Colombia's GDP will follow a similar path, mainly explained by lower household spending. Inflation will be lower over the next two years, allowing for lower int…
In November, our real-time indicator for household consumption behavior fell 2.3% YoY in real terms. The slowdown is generalized by type of goods and services and by city. At the end of the month, some disccount sales boosted electronic purchas…
Monthly inflation in November rose to 0.77% and annual inflation to 12.53%, up 31 bps from October's annual figure. The results were again above the median of market analysts' expectations of 12.27% and what we expected at BBVA Research (12.42%…
In October, the national unemployment rate was 9.7%. Employment growth showed a slowdown with respect to the growth rate observed in previous months. The commerce, artistic activities and public administration sectors were the most involved in job creation.
During the third quarter, the Colombian economy grew 7.0% YoY. Domestic demand continued to lead GDP dynamics, with a significant acceleration in fixed investment that offset the moderation of the expansionary cycle of final consumption. We expect 2022 growth to be around 8%.
