Publications

In the second week of September, Bre-B, the new low-value payment system developed by the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República), will become operational. Its value proposition includes the ability to make payments and transfers that are free, secure, and easy between individuals and businesses.

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

The Bank of the Republic maintained the policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided decision. While inflation showed a marginal reduction and growth continues a gradual recovery, they emphasized the larger estimated fiscal deficit and its effect on the economy and the Bank's interest rate profile.

Countries in the region, like Colombia, are developing open finance frameworks. To achieve innovation, competition, and inclusion, it's essential to modernize payments, establish governance that fosters participation, and create robust systems that protect information and customer trust.

Colombia’s economy gains traction through consumption and easing interest rates, while investment gradually recovers. Inflation is declining, yet fiscal risks persist. Global uncertainty—with trade and financial tensions—adds pressure. Moderate growth is forecast for 2025 and 2026.

Colombia's national unemployment rate in April 2025 was 8.8%, lower than the 10.6% observed a year prior. Seasonally adjusted, the April rate also stood at 8.8%, marking the lowest recorded since 2015.

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.