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The Colombian economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption, in the same two years, will grow at rates of 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively. And fixed investment will move from negative (-2.0% in 2024) to positive figures (6.2% in 2025).

The October 2023 national unemployment rate was 9.2%, down from 9.7% in October 2022, and the urban unemployment rate was 9.0%, down from 9.9% a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted, the national rate increased by 0.3 p.p. between September and October 2023 and the urban rate decreased by 0.2 p.p..

The slowdown of the economy is supported by a strong contraction of investment over the already weak levels reported in recent years, which is one of the main challenges for the future of the Colombian economy.

Private consumption balance between goods and services changed due to pandemic spending patterns, the subsequent recovery and the current slowdown. In addition, the new momentum of goods consumption since 2024 and the role of government spendi…

In 2022, poverty was 36.6% of the population, compared to 39.7% in 2021. With this, 1.3 million people were lifted out of poverty in Colombia between 2021 and 2022. Economic growth was the main factor that reduced poverty, an effect that was pa…

In the first half of 2023, FDI accounted for 5.8% of GDP and financed more than the entire current account deficit. current account deficit. Increasing FDI flows, especially those other than reinvestment of profits, is a desirable objective in a context of energy transition.

Monthly inflation in October was 0.25% and annual inflation was 10.48%. The result is below the expectations of market analysts, who according to the survey of Banco de la República expected an average of 0.37%.

Colombia has made significant progress in terms of labor formality in the last four years. Labor formality has positive implications for people's living conditions, productivity and the country's capacity to face adverse events, among others.

The Colombian economy will begin a slow recovery process in 2024, which could be more successful with a strong boost to investment. To this end, it is of utmost importance to promote better performance in two sectors that were key in the past a…

The El Niño phenomenon, which is forecast for the end of the year, will pressure inflation. However, the effects on the economy will depend on the intensity of the event: a weak El Niño will have little impact, while a strong one will have an i…

September's national unemployment rate was 9.3%, down from 10.7% a year ago. Seasonally adjusted, the rate increased by 0.2 p.p. between August and September 2023, which is explained by the slowdown in the pace of job creation. However, it is the lowest unemployment rate for a September since 2016.

BanRep kept its rate unchanged with a split vote. They argue that inflation, still high, activity around trend, and positive labor market figures, allow to keep the policy in its current stance. We believe that the first rate cut will be in December.