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The Colombian economy will grow 4.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, with inflation pressures that will gradually moderate from the second half of this year. The monetary policy intervention rate will turn contractionary in mid-2022. The great challenge for the economy is to increase formal employment and generate more savings.
Consumption in December grew 20.0%, closing the year with a similar dynamic to that recorded in November but lower than in October (24.8%). In the first part of January, goods have shown good dynamics while services fell compared to the peak recorded in December 21.
January 12, 2022
Colombia | Unemployment rate fell between October and November, but employment declined
In November, the national unemployment rate in its original series stood at 10.8% and the urban rate at 12.2%, lower than the same month in 2020, but still higher than in 2019. The national unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, decreased, with respect to October, as did employment and the labor force.
Inflation in December maintained its upward trend and again surprised on the upside with a monthly variation of 0.73%, closing the year at 5.62%. Inflation without food had a monthly variation of 0.44% and was 3.44% in annual terms, 8 basis points higher than in November.
With the pandemic, households changed some of their consumption habits. Today, many Colombian workers are home-based, which allows them to have more time available for leisure and other activities. Some of that time is used to do the shopping that used to be done on weekends.
Colombia is deepening its spending decentralization process, not only through the incursion of other large cities other than the capital, but also, and this is what is new, towards intermediate cities and regions other than large population conglomerations.
Banco de la República increased the policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.0%. The vote was split, with 4 members in favor of a 50 basis points increase and 3 in favor of 75 basis points.
According to the BBVA Big Data Consumption Index, consumption in November grew 22.3% compared to the same period in 2019. In December it accelerated slightly, growing 23.8%. In the first part of December services showed lower dynamics while goods boosted consumption.