Colombia latest publications
The DANE published the inflation figure for the month of July, with a variation of 0.22% above that anticipated by analysts. With this figure, annual inflation reached 3.79%, already very close to the ceiling of the target range defined by the Issuer. On the other hand, the exchange rate returned to historical highs.
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate on July 31, turning its speech earlier this year when it argued the need for additional increases. Similar steps have been taken by other economies, should Colombia follow? Not necessarily because the reality facing Colombia is different.
Economic sentiment indicators where published, showing mixed signals that make reading the economy more complex than usual. Consumer confidence continued deteriorating while industrial and commercial confidence improve and are in positive territory.
Over the last few weeks we have been reviewing our global and local economic outlook scenario and the year economic performance has been especially challenging due to the change in international conditions, mainly.
Economic growth will continue to be led by investment in view of the expected stabilisation in consumption spending. We estimate GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 will be at 3.0% each year and inflation at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Central Bank will keep its interest rates stable for a long time.
For several months, we have seen with concern a deterioration in the labor market that has been reflected in a higher unemployment rate, less job creation and/or a change in workers seeking employment, mainly.
This presentation deals with the recent performance and outlook for 2019-2020 of the Colombian economy and automotive sector. Households that buy cars and motorcycles in Colombia are profiled from the Household Budget Survey published in 2018 by DANE.
Last week they published data on the growth of the Colombian economy in the first quarter of the year and the large figures show a gradual and orderly recovery as expected. Within the recovery highlights positively the progress in investment in machinery and equipment and civil works.