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In the second week of September, consumption reverses the upward trend that it had at the beginning of the month. The protests in some cities and the effect of lower spending on the celebration of love and friendship are slowing down the recovery in consumption this month.
The high uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has stressed the need to monitor the evolution of the economy in “real time”. We developed a set of Big Data indicators to track Investment in Real Time and High Definition, extending the analysis to assess the business cycle and complementing our tracker of consumption.
In the last week, consumption increased due to the beginning of a new stage of isolation in the country called "selective isolation". This allowed the opening of new sectors such as restaurants, gastrobars, air and inter-municipal transport and hotels, among other activities.
In the last week, consumption, especially of services, had an additional impulse by a opening of sectors in some cities. At the regional level, Bogotá and Medellín have shown a good performance since the beginning of the opening plans, but cities with more tourism, such as Cartagena, continue to be the most affected.
In July, the pace of job creation moderated and the number of unemployed fell, reflecting the lack of dynamism in the labor force. As a result, the national unemployment rate fell from 20.8% to 19.8% between June and July.
In the last week, consumption remained stable in falls close to 20% y/y, with a greater deterioration in the case of services than goods. At the regional level there were mixed results; in Bogota consumption deteriorated while in Medellin there was a rebound due to the end of the quarantine on weekends.
The economic recovery in the country has slowed down in recent weeks and this has affected the recovery in consumption, especially in those cities that have aimplemented new quarantines due to the increase in Covid-19 cases.
During August, consumption falls 24% y/y, a greater drop than that observed in the first days of July. Although the pace of recovery in consumption was slowed by the new regional quarantines, there are already positive signs in some cities with fewer infections that began to open their economies.