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img_publication Watch

Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2017

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Global risk aversion stabilizes at historically low levels. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, all indicators remain virtually unchanged. Continued decline in sovereign CDS over the past year has led many countries to reach new historical lows


Summary

  • Argentina was upgraded by Moody’s and S&P. India was improved by Moody’s, Italy and Portugal by S&P. China and UK were downgraded by S&P and Moody’s respectively
  • Global risk aversion stabilizes at historically low levels. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, all indicators remain virtually unchanged. Continued decline in sovereign CDS over the past year has led many countries to reach new historical lows
  • Overall, the net aggregate of macroeconomic vulnerabilities remain stable or decreasing across different regions with the exception of increase of political and geopolitical risks
  • Deleveraging continues across the board, with some exceptions in Developed Markets (e.g. Canada, Sweden, HK) and in Emerging (e.g. Turkey, Philippines), and with a noticeable slowdown in China. However, there seems to be some decoupling with housing prices, which are growing strongly in several countries including many which are clearly deleveraging.
  • We present the results of an empirical exercise in which we seek to explain the deleveraging process that follows the burst of a credit bubble following a systemic banking crisis
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