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    Published on Thursday, May 6, 2021

    Economic Outlook Mexico 2021-2022

    Summary

    Improved growth dynamics; inflation will peak in April; Banxico will look through high inflation levels; the MXN has some room to further appreciate.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • We upwardly revised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 3.2%; upward bias on probable larger boost from US dynamic growth
    • The outlook for formal job creation is improving with an upwardly revised GDP path; yet, we do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022
    • FX: the MXN still has room to catch up with EM currencies’ average performance since the start of the global pandemic (Feb-2020)
    • Banxico will likely look through the temporary rise in inflation, which mostly reflects a spike in energy prices
    • The 2022 General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines released by the Finance Ministry anticipate an improved outlook for public finances in 2021

    Geographies

    Topics

    Authors

    Javier Amador BBVA Research - Principal Economist
    David Cervantes Arenillas BBVA Research - Senior Economist
    Arnulfo Rodríguez BBVA Research - Principal Economist
    Saide Aránzazu Salazar BBVA Research - Principal Economist
    Carlos Serrano BBVA Research - Chief Economist

    Documents and files


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    Report (PDF)

    MexicoOutlook-2021-22.pdf

    English - May 6, 2021

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