Economic Outlook Mexico 2021-2022
Published on Thursday, May 6, 2021
Economic Outlook Mexico 2021-2022
Summary
Improved growth dynamics; inflation will peak in April; Banxico will look through high inflation levels; the MXN has some room to further appreciate.
Key points
- Key points:
- We upwardly revised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 3.2%; upward bias on probable larger boost from US dynamic growth
- The outlook for formal job creation is improving with an upwardly revised GDP path; yet, we do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022
- FX: the MXN still has room to catch up with EM currencies’ average performance since the start of the global pandemic (Feb-2020)
- Banxico will likely look through the temporary rise in inflation, which mostly reflects a spike in energy prices
- The 2022 General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines released by the Finance Ministry anticipate an improved outlook for public finances in 2021
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Mexico
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
Tags
Authors
Javier Amador
BBVA Research - Principal Economist
David Cervantes Arenillas
BBVA Research - Senior Economist
Arnulfo Rodríguez
BBVA Research - Principal Economist
Saide Aránzazu Salazar
BBVA Research - Principal Economist
Carlos Serrano
BBVA Research - Chief Economist
Documents and files
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