Global | AI reprograms world trade

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) raises questions about employment, productivity, growth, and wealth distribution. Catastrophic predictions coexist, for now, with more optimistic visions about how these technologies will transform the global economy.

However, some of its effects are already visible. The demand associated with AI seems to be contributing to the resilience of global activity, which maintains reasonable growth despite the succession of shocks in recent years.

Its impact on international trade is even more evident. Recent data show that the demand for semiconductors, chips, servers, computer equipment, transformers, and other inputs has become one of the main drivers of global trade. Exports of AI-related products are increasing by around 30% year-on-year in nominal terms and, after several years of expansion, now account for nearly 20% of global trade. In contrast, goods unrelated to these technologies are growing by approximately 5%, below the growth of global GDP in nominal terms, which is close to 8% (the result of real growth slightly above 3% with average inflation of more than 4%).

Much of the momentum comes from the United States, by far the largest net importer of AI inputs. Thus, investments by U.S. companies not only stimulate their own economy but also support the activity of numerous trading partners.

Among the countries that have benefited the most are Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico. Also China, which, despite increasing restrictions on access to the U.S. market, has managed to accelerate its exports of AI-related products to third markets, especially in Asia. Some of these goods could eventually be reaching the United States indirectly, through other economies. This reorganization of trade chains illustrates some of the inefficiencies generated by the protectionist escalation, including higher costs that can fuel inflationary pressures.

The race to develop AI is therefore helping to contain the forces of deglobalization that many anticipated following the tightening of trade barriers. But it does not necessarily contribute to reducing the U.S. trade deficit or the Chinese surplus, two explicit goals of Donald Trump's policies. On the contrary, the dynamism of U.S. technology imports and China's export capacity highlight the difficulty of correcting trade imbalances through tariffs.

While governments raise trade barriers, the expansion of AI drives new investments, transforms supply chains, and opens new routes for international trade. Sometimes, technological advances and markets can write straight with crooked lines.

Press article. Published in Expansión on Novemner 1, 2026.