Global | Inflation and Bottlenecks Chartbook. March 2024

Summary

The disinflation process stalled in the first quarter in the U.S. and in April in the Eurozone (EZ). Additionally, most countries seem stuck with high services prices. Disruptions in shipping routes continued, but without wreaking havoc in supply chains.

Key points

• Key points:
• US headline inflation ticked up again in March ‘24 (to 3.5% y/y from 3.2%), while core inflation remained steady (at 3.8% y/y). Core services inflation increased (to 5.4%y/y).
• Preliminary April’s EZ inflation remained steady at (2.4%y/y), after experiencing a significant decline since Sep’23. Core goods continued declining, but services inflation moderated below expectations.
• Service inflation has maintained high growth since the pandemic. In the U.S., it is led by housing prices and transportation services. In Europe, the greater persistence of service inflation is driven by leisure and personal care services.
• New maritime routes, created to avoid vessel attacks in the Suez Canal, prompted carriers to seek alternative ports. Container freight rates moderate their slowdown.
• Manufacturing supply and delivery times and material shortages, were minimally affected by maritime disruptions. However, manufacturing prices increased slightly, reflecting higher commodity prices. Our supply bottlenecks indicators suggest no disruption in manufacturing production chains.

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