Mexico | GDP falls 0.3% QoQ in 3Q25: weakness in industry and services

Summary

Economic activity declined (-)0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the contraction in the industrial sector (-1.5% QoQ) and the modest growth in services (0.1% QoQ); considering the 3Q25 figure, GDP increased 0.5% as of September.

Key points

• Key points:
• The industrial sector remains on a negative trend, with decreases in mining (-7.7%), construction (-1.8%), and manufacturing (-0.2%) in annual terms (January–August, cumulative). The tertiary sector continues to lose momentum, with slower growth in wholesale trade and tourism (-5.4% and -2.4% YoY, respectively).
• Domestic demand continues to weaken, as gross fixed investment fell (-6.4% YoY as of August, cumulative) and private consumption declined (-0.1% YoY), amid households’ loss of purchasing power and lower consumer confidence.
• We expect the economic slowdown to persist through the end of 2025; however, we estimate that the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico will boost services and infrastructure investment. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 0.7%, with an upward bias for 2026 (BBVA 1.0%).

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