Mexico | Manufacturing improves in 1Q25 due to early orders amid potential tariffs

Summary

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator recorded a (-)0.4% YoY change in March, unchanged from the figure observed in February.

Key points

• Key points:
• Considering the March data, the year-over-year growth rate averaged (-)1.6% for 1Q25, which represents a 2.8 pp improvement compared to the 4Q24 average (-4.4%).
• The better relative performance of 1Q25 compared to the previous quarter points to a favorable development of the sector at the beginning of the year, given the advance of orders during the months of February and March, prior to the implementation of the new tariffs in the US.
• According to INEGI industrial activity figures, manufacturing registered 2.9% growth M/M in February, the largest change since March 2021, with a year-over-year growth of 1.8%.
• While advanced orders in manufacturing represented a favorable factor for the sector's performance in 1Q25, we estimate that risks will increase going forward, considering the high level of uncertainty regarding the scope and duration of the new tariffs.

Geographies

Topics

Tags