Mexico | Mixed Performance in Manufacturing during July

Summary

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 1.2% YoY in July, 0.9 pp above the figure registered the previous month (0.3% YoY); considering the July data, the year-over-year variation of the BBVA Research MMI reaches an average of (-)0.2% in the first seven months of the year (vs -1.5% in 2024).

Key points

• Key points:
• The July figure was driven by increases in production in the aerospace and electrical appliance sectors, while other segments, such as automobiles and machinery and equipment, show a slowdown.
• The improvement appears to be temporary, with a latent risk of impacts derived from the recurrent changes in U.S. trade policy, as indicated by the imports component of that country's ISM Manufacturing index, which has remained in contraction territory for four consecutive months.
• Considering the June data, twelve of the twenty-one subsectors of activity report production levels below their January 2025 figure (vs fifteen the previous month); as for the levels of utilized capacity, as of June, fifteen of the twenty-one subsectors were below their figure at the beginning of the year (vs fourteen the previous month).
• We estimate moderate growth for the sector in the second half of the year, given the high level of uncertainty regarding the scope and definitive duration of the new tariffs in the U.S.; added to this is the prolonged slowdown that investment has shown, with effects on the production possibilities frontier in the medium and long term.

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