Mexico | Outlook for Manufacturing Improves in 2026

Summary

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (MMI BBVA Research) grew 5.0% YoY in January, the highest figure since October 2022, pointing to a recovery in the sector this year.

Key points

• Key points:
• The improvement in production in January is taking place in an environment of resilient private consumption in the U.S. and stronger demand for inputs linked to artificial intelligence development in that country.
• According to INEGI activity figures, manufacturing grew 0.1% YoY in December, the first positive reading since May 2025.
• Regarding capacity utilization levels, petroleum and coal products manufacturing, the machinery and equipment segment, and the computer and communications equipment component stand out for exceeding by a wide margin the level recorded in January 2025 (+38.9%, +7.0%, and +4.5%, respectively).
• We anticipate that the rapid growth of investment in artificial intelligence in the U.S. will continue to support related manufacturing segments in Mexico, while the automotive sector will show gradual improvement; uncertainty associated with changes in trade policy remains.

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