Mexico | Slower Manufacturing Growth Due to Declining Import Orders

Summary

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator recorded a (-)0.5% YoY change in April, 0.1 pp below the figure recorded in March.

Key points

• Key points:
• Although the indicator does not show a significant deterioration compared to the previous month, it suggests weakness in the sector in 2Q25, following a temporary rebound due to advance orders.
• The import subcomponent of the US ISM Manufacturing index showed a level of 47.1 in April, entering contraction territory for the first time since December.
• Regarding capacity utilization levels, as of March, eleven of the twenty-one subsectors were still below their pre-COVID level (vs. ten the previous month).
• In addition to the impact on production from the temporary suspension of operations at some plants and the intermittent halt in shipments to the U.S., there are also effects on domestic demand, as companies gradually postpone their investment decisions due to the persistent lack of clarity regarding the new trade framework with our northern neighbor.

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