Mexico | What factors drive GHG emissions? Exploring the Kaya identity

Summary

The Kaya identity is an analytical tool that helps to understand the behavior of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through four factors: population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and the emissions intensity of energy.

Key points

• Key points:
• At the global level, GHG emissions reflect the trade liberalization of the late 20th century and China’s rise as a manufacturing power in the following years, as well as the growing participation of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
• In Mexico’s case, the Kaya identity makes it possible to analyze changes in GHG emissions as a result of economic crises, North American integration, the COVID-19 pandemic, and adjustments in the energy mix in recent years.
• In the most recent Climate Inequality Report, led by economist Thomas Piketty, it is noted that, globally, the top 10% of the population by income accounts for 47% of global GHG emissions associated with consumption.
• With a gross total of 784 million tons of CO2 equivalent—1.3% of the global total—Mexico ranks 11th among the world’s largest GHG emitters. Mexico is also an important methane emitter, representing 24% of its GHG emissions. This gas, which originates from the decomposition of solid waste, wastewater, livestock manure, and extraction activities in the hydrocarbon sector, is 28 times more potent in its contribution to global warming than CO2.
• At COP30, held last month in Brazil, Mexico presented a new update of its climate targets (NDC). To meet these targets, the country must reduce its GHG emissions consistently by 3.6% each year over the next decade, although in 2024 its gross GHG emissions grew by 3.2% compared to the previous year. Thus, to achieve its goals, the country requires ambitious investment in renewable energy, modernization of electrical infrastructure, and energy-efficiency measures.

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