Peru | In September the non-primary component of GDP continued to recover

Summary

Activity advanced 3.2% year-on-year in September. By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, and within this, that of some services, non-primary manufacturing (greater manufacturing of capital goods), and commerce.

Key points

• Key points:
• By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, which grew 4.1%, and within this that of some services, non-primary manufacturing (increased manufacturing of capital goods), and commerce. On the primary component side, it grew only slightly (0.4%), with mining activity losing dynamism.
• Taking into account the September data, we estimate that activity accelerated slightly in the third quarter, to 3.8% (3.6% year-on-year in the second), supported by higher spending related to the release of pension funds , improvement of the formal labor market, decrease in financing costs, and public investment that maintained its dynamism.
• The first indicators available for October suggest that in that month the Peruvian economy would have grown at a rate not very different from that of September.
• Taking into account the GDP growth in the third quarter - greater than what we forecast in the previous base scenario -, the leading indicators for October, and an anchovy catch quota in the second season that was finally higher than what we estimated, It is likely that in our next review of macroeconomic forecasts we will increase the projected growth for this year by a few tenths, currently at 2.9%, a review that we will make public at the beginning of December.

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