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GDP grew 5.0% y/y in May. The expansion of the fishing sector and primary manufacturing stood out (together they reflect the effect of the greater catch of anchovy). We estimate that the direct contribution of this factor to GDP growth is 2.5 percentage points, which represents half of the expansion rate for the month.

In its July decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.

The Big Data Consumption Index accelerated in June, in an environment of lower inflation and interest rates, and the initiation of payments for provisional fund withdrawals. On the other hand, the Big Data Investment Indicator accentuated its c…

June inflation was 0.12% MoM. The result for the month is explained by the increase in the prices of foods such as fish and potatoes, moderated by the decrease in the prices of chicken, some fruits, and fuel. The year-on-year rate was 2.3% (2.0…

The last two years in Latin America have been marked by differences in macroeconomic policy strategies. Chile and Peru have made significant interest rate reductions as their inflation has allowed. Meanwhile, Colombia and Mexico are more reluct…

Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

GDP expanded 5.3% YoY in April. This result was influenced by the fact that some activities were affected by two more days of productive activity given that Easter was celebrated in April last year, while this year it was scheduled in March.

In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.

The Big Data Consumer Index grew for the fifth consecutive month in May, in an environment of lower inflation and interest rates, while the Big Data Investment Index contracted.

The country has been going backwards in pension security. We hope that this law is the beginning of a reversal of this situation and that, finally, responsible solutions are sought to guarantee an adequate level of protection during old age.

The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in May. The reduction in food prices and electricity rates stood out. The interannual rate was 2.0% (2.4% in April) in the center of the Central Bank's target range.

The monetary poverty rate increased from 27.5% in 2022 to 29.0% in 2023 (BBVA Research estimate published in March of this year: 29.1%), moving further away from the pre-pandemic level (the lowest in 16 years) and returning to a record similar to that of 2010-2011.