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The ability to cope with financial shocks from one's own resources is called financial vulnerability. It is measured as the period of time that individuals can survive by covering their needs if they lose their main source of income and without using credit.
We expect output to grow by 3,1% in 2020, a forecast which is similar to the one we made in October, while in 2021 economic activity would grow by 3,5%. The main drivers will be the normalisation of primary activities (mining) and public spending, to which a stronger private spending will be added next year.
We estimate that in 2020 mining production will perform better, giving an important support to GDP growth. We also anticipate that mining investment will exhibit a more moderate increase due to the completion of some projects (mainly copper) already underway.
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
Financial Health is a condition in which people can fully meet their current financial obligations, feel secure about their financial future and are able to make decisions that allow them to enjoy life.
After a two-month pause, the Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to cut the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points in November, from 2,50% to 2,25%.
We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
Venezuelan immigrants to Peru over the last three years (more than 800,000, equivalent to 2.4% of the Peruvian population) have had non-negligible impacts on aggregate demand and potential GDP.