Peru latest publications
Financial Health is a condition in which people can fully meet their current financial obligations, feel secure about their financial future and are able to make decisions that allow them to enjoy life.
After a two-month pause, the Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to cut the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points in November, from 2,50% to 2,25%.
We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
Venezuelan immigrants to Peru over the last three years (more than 800,000, equivalent to 2.4% of the Peruvian population) have had non-negligible impacts on aggregate demand and potential GDP.
Over the last few weeks, one of the risk factors on our output growth forecasts from mid-July, namely the higher political noise, has materialised. In this context, those output growth forecasts have been revised downwards.
This paper analyzes the effect of financial participation on consumer's financial vulnerability, which is pervasive in the developing world. The financial behavior of consumers (i.e. financial health) has a greater positive effect on financial vulnerability than the narrower concept of financial inclusion.
The boom in agricultural exports has been one of the greatest achievements of the Peruvian economy over the past twenty years. This has been particularly true for fruits and vegetables, mainly sent to Europe and the US. This performance has placed Peru among the most important global suppliers for some products.
We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.