Most recent posts from Peru

BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% for a tenth straight month, in line with expectations. Headline (4.0%) and core (4.5%) inflation remain above target, and the statement points to somewhat slower convergence. We do not rule out a policy rate adjustment in the coming months.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index grew 7.7% year-on-year in June, marking its fifth consecutive month of deceleration as the positive effects of the extraordinary pension fund withdrawals that began in November 2025.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a global economic shock in 2026 that is impacting Latin America. Rising commodity prices and logistics costs have triggered a spike in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

The BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% for the ninth consecutive month. Headline inflation (3.9%) and core inflation (4.4%) remain above the target, and according to the statement, convergence will extend into 2027. We do not rule out the possibility that the BCRP may adjust its policy during the second half of the year.

El Niño is a recurring Pacific Ocean warming event that affects Latin American countries in very different ways. Its economic impact depends on each country's exposure and vulnerability, influencing growth, inflation, agriculture and infrastructure through diverse climate transmission channels.

In May, the Metropolitan Lima CPI fell 0.16% m/m (consensus: +0.08%). The decline was driven mainly by lower prices for food (–1.69%) and transport (–0.19%). As a result, annual inflation eased to 3.9%, from 4.0% in April.