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GDP grew by 2,7 % year-on-year in May, exceeding both the market consensus (2,1 %) and April’s print (1,4 %). The non-primary component increased by 3,2 %, while the primary one once again declined, mining and fishing in particular.

At its July meeting, the Central Bank's Board held its benchmark interest rate at 4.50%. In real terms, the rate remains close to the neutral rate.

The CPI rose by 0,13% m/m in June, broadly in line with analysts’ consensus. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1,7%, comfortably within the Central Bank’s target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, on the other hand, declined and also stood at 1,7%.

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

At its June meeting, the Central Bank’s Board decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, measured by the ex-ante real reference rate, remains around neutral.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a yoy growth of 15.6% in May, exceeding the figures from April (11.6%) and March (10.9%).

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

In March 2025, GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year. The primary component expanded by 4.9%, driven by the fishing and construction sectors. The non-primary component rose by 4.3%, supported by non-primary manufacturing, construction, and some service segments.