Peru latest publications
Lima's Consumer Price Index fell 0.27% m/m in June, a downside surprise for the market (Bloomberg Consensus: -0.10% m/m). With June's monthly result, year-on-year inflation slowed down to 1.6%, from 1.8% the previous month.
In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.
Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wait and see if the trend consolidates given the reopening of the economy.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in June. The Bank renewed its commitment to maintain a strongly expansive stance for a prolonged period and showed greater concern for inflation, estimating it will fall below the target range this year.
In May, Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.20% m/m, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: +0.04%). With May's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated slightly to 1.8%YoY, from 1.7%YoY the previous month.
May 29, 2020
Peru | Measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 significantly affected output in 1Q20
GDP strongly contracted in the first quarter, reflecting the measures implemented since mid-March by the Government in order to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
GDP contracted by 16.3% year-on-year in March. In the monthly records we have access to (since the beginning of 1994) we do not see a bump like this.
May 8, 2020
Peru | The Central Bank will keep a highly expansive policy stance for a prolonged period
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 0,25% in May. The accompanying statement included a “forward guidance” component, with the Bank committing to the current monetary policy stance as long as the negative effects of COVID-19 persist.