Peru latest publications
Venezuelan immigrants to Peru over the last three years (more than 800,000, equivalent to 2.4% of the Peruvian population) have had non-negligible impacts on aggregate demand and potential GDP.
Over the last few weeks, one of the risk factors on our output growth forecasts from mid-July, namely the higher political noise, has materialised. In this context, those output growth forecasts have been revised downwards.
This paper analyzes the effect of financial participation on consumer's financial vulnerability, which is pervasive in the developing world. The financial behavior of consumers (i.e. financial health) has a greater positive effect on financial vulnerability than the narrower concept of financial inclusion.
The boom in agricultural exports has been one of the greatest achievements of the Peruvian economy over the past twenty years. This has been particularly true for fruits and vegetables, mainly sent to Europe and the US. This performance has placed Peru among the most important global suppliers for some products.
We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.
Activity slowed at the beginning of the year due to the decline in public investment and mining production. Going forward, there will be a better performance .We continue foreseeing GDP will grow by 3.9% in 2019 supported by mining investment. However, in comparison with the previous report, now our forecast has a downward …
We estimated a Taylor rule for the Central Bank and found that the estimated rate has not diverted from the average observed rate more than one month. We expected that the BCRP would soon begin to raise the rate to a more neutral level. However, there are concerns about global growth which could lead to the current monetary…
Sales of new apartments in Lima continued to recover in 2018 in a context of improved formal employment, attractive interest rates, and some government incentives. We estimate that sales improvement will keep consolidating this year. On the prime office market side, the supply of previous years is gradually being digested a…