Peru | Inflation rises again and crosses 4.0% in July

Summary

Year-on-year inflation in Peru rose to 4.1% in July (0.29% monthly), exceeding the central bank's target range. The increase is attributed to food supply restrictions and seasonal factors. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also picked up, standing at 4.6% year-on-year.

Key points

• Key points:
• July inflation stood at 0.29% m/m, a figure close to the analyst consensus (0.25% m/m), bringing the year-on-year rate to 4.1%.
• The price increase was due to supply restrictions on food items such as poultry and a seasonal rise in demand for transport due to national holidays.
• The price index excluding food and energy increased by 0.28% m/m, with the year-on-year rate rising to 4.6%, exceeding the Central Bank's target range (2% +/- 1 p.p.).
• Inflation is expected to remain above 4.0% for several more months, with the year-end 2026 figure not far from that level.
• A monetary policy rate hike in the second half of 2026 is not ruled out if inflationary expectations resume their upward trend.

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