Peru | Rebound in primary activities drove the highest growth in June

Summary

GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in June, below the market consensus (4.8%) but higher than in the previous two months. The primary component rebounded, and the non-primary component grew by over 3.0%.

Key points

• Key points:
• The primary component rebounded in July (5.7%), with a widespread improvement within it. The agricultural and fishing sectors stood out (driven by greater anchovy catches).
• Meanwhile, the non-primary component grew 3.4% in June, with the construction sector once again standing out. Non-primary manufacturing also performed well, particularly the production of capital goods, as well as the trade sector.
• The balance of available activity indicators for July 2025 suggests that the year-on-year growth rate would be lower that month. Our preliminary estimate is slightly above 3.0%.
• The outlook for the second half of the year will be more challenging, due to a higher year-on-year comparison base — partly because of the previously mentioned withdrawals from private pension funds — a likely greater impact from global trade tensions, and the proximity of the 2026 general elections, which tend to induce caution in spending decisions. This context is consistent with our projection that the Peruvian economy will grow 3.1% in 2025.

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