Peru | Sharp setback of primary GDP in November

Summary

GDP grew by 1.5% in November, below the market consensus (2.8%) and October’s outcome (4.0%). Primary GDP contracted by 5.5%, while non-primary GDP expanded by 3.3%.

Key points

• Key points:
• The sectoral outcome is mainly explained by a 5.5% contraction in primary GDP, with broad-based declines in mining (-6.2%) due to lower copper production, agriculture (-1.0%), and fishing (-17.8%) as a result of reduced anchovy extraction, which also weighed on primary manufacturing (-7.0%).
• Non-primary GDP grew by 3.3%, driven by construction, trade, and services, while non-primary manufacturing remained weak, with a decline in consumer goods despite the solid performance of household spending.
• Activity indicators for December 2025 suggest an acceleration in year-on-year growth, despite a high comparison base.
• Considering the official GDP figures for October and November, together with the indicators available for December, economic activity is estimated to have grown by around 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, INEI’s recent upward revision of the historical GDP series suggests that Peru’s economy in 2025 may have expanded slightly above the 3.3% projected in the baseline scenario.

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