Spain | Aragon Economic Outlook 2023

Summary

Aragon's GDP will increase by 3.8% in 2022. We forecast an increase of 1.2% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024, which will allow for the creation of 15,600 new jobs between 2022 and 2024.

Key points

• Key points:
• Aragon would have already recovered the 2019 level of GDP per capita. Only Castille-La Mancha would have also achieved this target in the same year.
• The most recent information forces to revise the 2022 growth to 3.8% in Aragon and 5.5% in Spain. However, less dynamism is observed in the second half of the year, and therefore, the forecast for 2023 is for a slowdown in regional GDP growth to 1.2% in 2023.
• The entry into recession of the Eurozone and the exhaustion of the recovery in tourism will cause the contribution to growth of external demand to be negative in 2023 and 2024. Household spending will be affected by rising prices, increased uncertainty, slowing employment and rising interest rates.
• Activity will gain traction as NGEU funds are executed and uncertainties affecting households and businesses fade. In particular, in the case of Aragon, the resolution of the bottlenecks that have differentially affected the automotive sector is relevant. This will boost Aragon's GDP growth in 2024 to 3.5%. By 2024, 15,600 new jobs could be created in the region.
• The correction of inflation will continue, and there do not seem to be any problems in gas supply. Companies and households are better prepared to face a more volatile environment. There are no imbalances in the economic sectors.

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