Spain | Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2026

Summary

Regional GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.1% in 2025, with further growth of 2.4% projected for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, above the region’s historical average.

Key points

• Key points:
• Employment accelerated in 2025 (especially in Toledo and Guadalajara), and 47,000 jobs could be created between 2025 and 2027. Eighty-two percent of the jobs created are explained by foreign-born population growth. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 11.5% by 2027.
• Consumption is benefiting from the recovery in real wages (increases of around 3%, with inflation at approximately 2.5%) and from lower interest rates. The housing market shows momentum (building permits +9.7% in 2025), although structural supply constraints persist.
• Goods exports are growing (+5.1% nominal growth through September 2025), driven by food products and consumer manufactures, despite weakness in capital goods. The impact of the U.S. and the appreciation of the euro could be somewhat smaller than in other Autonomous Communities, but external uncertainty remains present and elevated.
• Structural bottlenecks include labor shortages in some sectors, relatively low productivity, a housing deficit, and limited fiscal space (debt at around 28.8% of regional GDP). Fiscal sustainability and improvements to the regional financing system are significant medium-term challenges.

Geographies

Topics

Tags