Türkiye | Quarterly Debt Outlook_ 4Q2025

Summary

BRSA and CBRT have tightened macro-prudential measures further. The increasing pace of retail & SME NPL inflows will decelerate again with the additional BRSA restructuring decision and potential CGF packages in 1Q26.

Key points

• Key points:
• Households keep using their gold savings (broadly precious metals) as a significant wealth buffer. Their overall financial assets/GDP ratio remains low; deposit share declined in 3Q25, seems to be replaced by the increase in mutual funds.
• NPL flows in GPLs and credit cards have again gained momentum since restructured loans after July have started to be transferred as new NPLs; where the BRSA added a new package as of Feb26.
• After having improved between Aug and Oct, net FX short position of corporates worsened in Nov due to the increase in their external FC liabilities. NPLs of SMEs reached almost 3.5%, to be potentially dealt as refinancings going forward.
• Overall public debt to GDP remains low. High burden of interest payments due to high interest rates and decreasing maturities remain as risk factors, in addition to the losses due to decelerating but continuing gold borrowings amid the upsurge in prices.
• The increase in banks’ subordinated debt issuances in 2Q25 decelerated in 4Q25, which are expected to resume after 1Q26. External credits continued to support external funding growth. Having said that, the short term debt to be paid in one year is increasing in the sector since Aug25.

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