Published on Saturday, October 26, 2019 | Updated on Friday, November 1, 2019

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. October 2019

Baseline revised down on weaker incoming data and rising global pessimism. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 65% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market, as momentum continues to wane.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Inflation returning to target, if downside risks moderate
  • Fed likely to take a step back from its “mid-cycle” path to allow for time to evaluate the impact of increased accommodation
  • Yield curve inversion easing with slight improvement in term premium
  • Weaker demand pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical risks remain


  • Geography Tags
  • USA


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