Publications

United States tariff policies in 2025 have reignited protectionist measures, while inconsistent trade stances from the Trump administration have added uncertainty.

Growth remains solid, but in a context of deceleration. In 2025, services exports remain the main growth driver. In 2026, the impact of tariffs and the slowdown in non-resident consumption will lead to a moderation in growth.

The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.

Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.

Aragon's GDP growth in 2024 could have reached 3.0%, and will continue with an increase of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. The dynamism is supported by domestic demand, favoured by the fall in inflation and interest rates and the increase in wages and employment.

In 2024, the Spanish economy showed positive dynamics driven by domestic consumption and tourism, which also introduced heterogeneity in regional developments. As a result, Mediterranean regions and the islands were generally the ones leading growth once again last year.

The direct impact on the Spanish economy of a possible increase in tariffs on U.S. imports is expected to be limited, given the relatively lower trade exposure with respect to the rest of the Eurozone countries. However, there are regions, sectors and companies that may be particularly affected.

It may well be negative in the short run, although it should be cushioned by the relatively low direct exposure of the Spanish economy to trade with the US. In the medium term, the outcome will be determined by the goals set by the new US President and the economic policy responses, both in the eurozone and in Spain.