Publications

International trade continues to perform solidly despite rising protectionism. While U.S. tariffs have moderated following recent agreements and exemptions, they remain elevated and global trade imbalances persist. This points to short-term resilience, but with meaningful risks of greater fragmentation over the medium term.

The GDP growth forecast has been revised upward across the board for 2025 and 2026. The revision is due to the resilience of economic activity, especially exports of both goods and services, as well as investment playing a more important role in the recovery than previously thought.

United States tariff policies in 2025 have reignited protectionist measures, while inconsistent trade stances from the Trump administration have added uncertainty.

Growth remains solid, but in a context of deceleration. In 2025, services exports remain the main growth driver. In 2026, the impact of tariffs and the slowdown in non-resident consumption will lead to a moderation in growth.

The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.

Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.

Aragon's GDP growth in 2024 could have reached 3.0%, and will continue with an increase of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. The dynamism is supported by domestic demand, favoured by the fall in inflation and interest rates and the increase in wages and employment.