Spain | GDP surprises to the upside in 2Q26 (0.7%) and improves the outlook for 2026

Summary

In 2Q26, GDP grew by 0.7% QoQ, one tenth higher than expected, which introduces an upward bias to the 2026 forecast. Private consumption remained solid, while investment and exports advanced less than expected. Employment supported growth and productivity showed mixed signs.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP grew slightly more than expected in 2Q26.
• Upward bias in the BBVA Research scenario for 2026.
• Domestic demand supports growth, although with a lower contribution than expected.
• Consumption remains resilient, but investment and goods trade surprise to the downside again.
• Higher employment, but without a clear improvement in productivity.

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