Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. June 2026

Summary

The Spanish economy will maintain growth of above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by consumption, services and construction, although the deterioration in the international environment is widening regional differences.

Key points

• Key points:
• Spain’s GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with domestic demand, employment and residential investment playing a larger role as the main drivers of activity.
• Madrid, the Mediterranean regions and the islands will lead growth in 2026, driven by tourism, services exports and higher consumption by non-residents.
• The northern regions, where industry and exports carry greater weight, are more exposed to the deterioration in the external environment, affected by rising energy costs, weak European demand and tensions in supply chains.
• In 2027, a relative recovery is expected in parts of northern mainland Spain, supported by a gradual improvement in goods exports and a reduced impact from energy shocks.
• Structural challenges that constrain medium-term growth persist, especially housing shortages, the gradual fading of fiscal support and low productivity in high-value-added activities.

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