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    April 20, 2021

    China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2021

    Economic recovery is still solid in that the Q1 GDP registered a record-high year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. The authorites are phasing out their policy stimulus. More policy attention has shifted to winding down the legacy debt caused by the anti-pandemic relief measures and tackling financial vulnerabilities.

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    October 21, 2020

    Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2020

    The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 6.0% in 2021. The fall in GDP exceeded 20% in the first half and it is estimated that the recovery in the third quarter would have been 14% t / t. In any case, a significant slowdown is expected during the last part of 2020.

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    May 29, 2020

    Turkey | 1Q GDP already shows the COVID impact

    Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.

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    February 28, 2020

    Turkey | The economy grew by 0.9% in 2019

    Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.

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    December 2, 2019

    Turkey | First Positive Growth since 3Q2018

    Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for 2019 with some upside risk and a neutral 3% for 2020.

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    August 8, 2017

    Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

    Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…

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    August 26, 2010

    MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecast…

    In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different frequencies and delays with respect to the period to which they refer.

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