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After a first half of the year in which the Spanish economy displayed a degree of momentum, the outlook for the second half is rather darker. A few months ago, we were hoping that the north winds would help to clear the skies, but they now appear to be bringing a storm with them.
Growth in Spain will remain high in the 2022-2023 biennium. Pandemic control, the use of pent-up savings, accelerating NGEU funds, ECB measures and high spare capacity would offset the effects of bottlenecks and higher energy prices.
Spain's growth expectations for 2021 and 2022 are moderated to 5.2% and 5.5%, respectively. These figures are weighed down by a number of negative factors such as disruptions in production chains, rising energy prices and delays in the implemen…
Economic recovery is still solid in that the Q1 GDP registered a record-high year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. The authorites are phasing out their policy stimulus. More policy attention has shifted to winding down the legacy debt caused by th…
The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 6.0% in 2021. The fall in GDP exceeded 20% in the first half and it is estimated that the recovery in the third quarter would have been 14% t / t. In any case, a significant slowdo…
Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.
Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.
Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of …
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDP…
In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different frequencies and dela…
