Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. Second Half 2024

Summary

The Mexican economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.2% by the end of 2024. Construction will close with a GDP growth of 10.1%, accumulated to the 2Q24, and will sustain the weak growth of the Mexican economy in 2024.

Key points

• Key points:
• The Manufacturing GDP will grow only 0.4% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.
• The average growth at a regional level is 1.1%. Only Campeche’s GDP will decline 0.2% by the end of 2024.
• STEM enrollment at the state level increased by 4% between 2018 and 2023. The success of nearshoring will rely on an increase in graduates in these fields.
• Only a downgrade in public debt rating would negatively impact the GDP of the Financial Services industry, stemming from the current high levels of public debt.
• Since 2020, Mexican exports have experienced a recomposition towards a higher foreign value added (VA), mainly from the US and China to the detriment of the national VA, which fell from 64.9% to 58.3% between 2020 and 2022.

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