Publications

In the 21st century, history is again being challenged by a wave of protectionism from the United States. President Donald Trump has just announced a barrage of tariffs that marks the country's biggest protectionist offensive in almost a century.

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has been ramping up his protectionist agenda, reigniting uncertainty over trade and global growth. The increase in tariffs on imports of goods not only affects the US economy, but its repercussions extend worldwide.

In the third quarter, the current account deficit continued to narrow and reached 1.68 billion dollars, representing 1.7% of GDP. Nevertheless, the reasons for this closing are not as good as others: they respond to the process of contraction that domestic demand has undergone so far this year.

China's exports and imports are experiencing some structural change. The forced Chinese version of imports substitution industrialization indicates value chain upgrading and technology self-sufficiency.

In the last two decades China has substantially increased its importance both in the world trade of goods, tripling its weight in world exports and imports, and in the trade of services and capital. This is reflected in substantial changes in China's bilateral economic relations with many countries, including Spain.

Purchases of machinery and equipment, excluding transport, have performed well during the recovery period. The import analysis indicates an acceleration in the transition towards a productive and green energy-intensive model, together with a promotion of automation and digitalization.

In the first quarter, GDP grew 8.5% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. Consumption remained a good dynamic driven by spending on durable and semi-durable goods and the services sector. Investment, which performed well, was driven by the purchase of machinery and the advance of intellectual property.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated severe sanctions represent a significant supply shock, with negative effects on both growth and inflation, through the commodity, financial volatility, confidence and supply chain channels. In the current context, uncertainty is exceptionally high.