Publications

Domestic demand continues to slow; private consumption fell (-)0.1% as of June (YoY, cum.), while investment contracted (-)6.4%. We revise our 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.7%, supported by the favorable performance of the economy in 1H25, although expectations point to a slowdown in the second half of the year.

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

Mexican MSMEs have advanced in financial inclusion, but gaps in credit access and digitalization remain. Micro and women-led businesses face greater barriers. Strategic support is essential to fully integrate them into economic development.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 2.0% YoY in May, bringing the average year-over-year growth variance for the first five months of the year to 5.0% (vs. 1.0% in the same period last year).

The "Plan Mexico" is emerging as a key initiative to mitigate the tariff shock and reposition the country as an attractive destination for investment. Mexico holds a relatively favorable position among the five largest exporters to the United States, which could revitalize Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows.

Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.

On April 2, 2025, the White House issued an executive order introducing reciprocal tariffs aimed at regulating U.S. trade and reducing the trade deficit. A baseline 10% tariff will take effect on April 5, while country-specific reciprocal tariffs will be implemented starting April 9.

Mexico imposes temporary tariffs of 15 to 35% on 155 tariff items in the textile and clothing industry, modifies the Immex Decree to limit access in these sectors. Finally, it establishes a global rate of 19% on products imported through digital platforms from countries without a trade agreement, including China.