Mexico | Transitory boost to the economy in 2Q26: grows 1.5% QoQ

Summary

GDP grew by 1.5% QoQ in 2Q26, bringing cumulative growth in the first half of the year to 1.2% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect the World Cup-related boost to fade, with weak domestic demand once again becoming the main driver of the outlook.

Key points

• Key points:
• The industrial sector’s momentum was driven by construction, which grew by a cumulative 1.7% through May (YoY). In contrast, manufacturing contracted by a cumulative 1.2% over the same period (YoY).
• In the services sector, growth was supported by wholesale trade, which expanded by a cumulative 5.5% through May (YoY), while hotels and restaurants weakened, contracting by a cumulative 2.6% year-to-date (YoY).
• On the demand side, private consumption remained relatively resilient through April, posting cumulative growth of 2.3% (YoY). By contrast, investment contracted by a cumulative 0.7% over the same period (YoY), weighed down by a 4.6% decline in machinery and equipment.
• We expect investment to remain weak in the second half of the year amid persistent uncertainty and lower public spending, while private consumption will continue to support growth, with a stronger contribution from goods consumption.
• We maintain our 2026 growth forecast at 1.2%, followed by a gradual recovery in 2027 (BBVA 1.8%).

Geographies

Topics

Tags