BBVA Research

The Plan has awarded €62.7 billion, 78% of the amount planned. Individuals and SMEs account for most beneficiaries; large and medium-sized firms for the amount awarded. Implementation is higher in lower-income regions. Two months before the deadline, the current implementation rate is not enough to complete the commitments.

In June 2026, remittances to Mexico grew for the fifth consecutive month, reaching $5,471.8 million, a 4.2% year-over-year increase. Most states registered increases. The analysis also addresses new US measures to restrict migrants' financial access.

Housing demand will remain strong despite the decline in home sales in 2026 (-7.3%), but housing supply will remain insufficient, continuing to put upward pressure on prices. Grid congestion and growing competition for electricity access are already delaying new residential and economic developments.

On July 23, the USTR imposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies. Mexico faces an additional 10% tariff for failing to effectively enforce its ban on goods produced with forced labor, constituting a USMCA violation.

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty