Argentina Economic Outlook. October 2026

Exports are set to reach a record high in 2026, consolidating their role as a key driver of economic activity and supporting exchange rate stability. The country is expected to achieve three consecutive years of growth by 2027, amid declining but persistent inflation and highly uneven sectoral performance.

Key points

• Key points:
• Inflation is expected to decline to 29% YoY by end-2026 and approach 20% in 2027, although disinflation is unlikely to follow a linear path.
• Exports are projected to reach a record high of USD 102 billion in 2026, driven by hydrocarbons, mining, and agriculture, with trade surpluses exceeding USD 24 billion in both 2026 and 2027.
• Economic activity is slowing, with significant disparities across sectors. The GDP growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 3%, supported by exports and investment.
• Strong external sector performance enabled the BCRA to purchase over USD 14.5 billion in 2026. The exchange rate is expected to reach ARS 1,630/USD by end-2026, with slightly positive real interest rates in the final quarter of the year.

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