BBVA Research

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain solid growth above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by employment, private consumption, services exports, and the housing sector. However, a weaker external environment, inflation, higher interest rates, and structural challenges will constrain part of its growth potential.

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty

The national unemployment rate remained at 8.8% in April 2026, interrupting the downward trend observed since 2025. This result responded to proportional increases in both the employment rate and the overall participation rate. Thus, job creation continued to be dynamic, with an annual growth of 3.0%.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.

The Banco de México updated the remittance data received by the country in 2024-2026. The largest adjustment was made for 2025, with an increase of USD 695 million. The correlation coefficients of remittances to Mexico were analyzed in relation to 6 major remittance-receiving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Educational inequalities in Mexico are examined through an analysis of educational lag between 2004 and 2024 and the estimation of a probit model using data from the 2024 ENIGH survey to quantify their main determinants based on individual, household, and contextual characteristics.

Recent economic slowdown has already weighed on the internal sources of financing as retirement savings gain greater relevance. These resources have been allocated mainly to the public sector and households, particularly through banking credit.

The significant appreciation of the Mexican peso over the past 12 months has supported domestic consumption and the performance of the services sector; however, it has also generated important pressures on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic suppliers operating with low profit margins.

The Colombian automotive sector experienced a strong recovery in 2025 and has further accelerated its momentum in 2026. Growth has been driven by improved household consumption, the rise of utility vehicles, and the advancement of hybrid and electric technologies.

The automotive market recovered supported by improved affordability, credit conditions, and lower exchange rate distortions. However, local production and the external sector still face structural constraints, limiting the sustainability of growth over the medium term.