BBVA Research

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

After 11 consecutive years of expansion in remittances, a period in which these funds nearly tripled, the end of this growth streak is confirmed for 2025. Last year, Mexico received 61,791 million USD in family remittances, a figure that represents a 4.6% year-on-year decrease.

The increase in total tourism spending (domestic and international) remained dynamic during the third quarter of 2025, reaching 6.5% year-over-year (6.4% in the previous period). The acceleration of domestic tourism offset the moderation in international tourism.

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator (BBVA Research MMI) grew 4.0% YoY in December, maintaining the pace observed in the previous month; in 2025 it records an average year-over-year variation of -0.2%, 2.3 pp above that observed in 2024.

The INE's updated regional GDP estimates for 2024 do not introduce significant changes to the growth hierarchy, which, as noted in September, was led by Murcia and the island regions.