BBVA Research

Despite rising protectionism, global trade remains resilient, more consistent with a reallocation of trade flows than with a deglobalization scenario. International commerce has been supported by the ongoing AI boom, robust demand, and a weaker US dollar (which generally supports global trade).

Electricity grids are becoming a global bottleneck to the energy transition. Without faster, anticipatory investment, renewables and electrification will not reach their full potential. Digitalisation and storage help, but cannot substitute for grid expansion.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

After 11 consecutive years of expansion in remittances, a period in which these funds nearly tripled, the end of this growth streak is confirmed for 2025. Last year, Mexico received 61,791 million USD in family remittances, a figure that represents a 4.6% year-on-year decrease.