BBVA Research

Mexico's current account recorded a surplus of USD 8.9 billion in 2Q26, driven by a record high in the non-oil merchandise balance. In contrast, Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) showed an annual decrease of 11.7% during the first half of 2026.

The total solar eclipse on August 12 boosted spending by foreign tourists in Spain—particularly in provinces where the phenomenon was most visible—suggesting a shift in tourism toward key viewing destinations. In contrast, spending by domestic travelers was not significantly affected.

In spite of the conflict, 2Q26 growth could surprise to the upside relative to our previous forecast as our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 3.0% y/y growth for 2Q26, indicating a quarterly growth of around 1.0–1.5%. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, with geopolitical tension as the key downside risk.

Argentina is in a new phase of its energy development, with record oil and gas production driven by unconventional resources from Vaca Muerta. However, the main challenge is to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks to capitalize on its export potential.