Colombia | Inflation of September at 5.18%, third consecutive increase

Summary

Monthly inflation in September was 0.32%, above the expectations of analysts (0.24% according to the Central Bank’s survey) and BBVA Research (0.23%). As a result, annual inflation stood at 5.18%, an increase of 8 basis points compared to August, marking three consecutive months of increases.

Key points

• Key points:
• Annual inflation accelerated in September due to the behavior of both the food basket and the non-food basket, each recording an 8 bp increase in their annual variation compared to the previous month.
• In the food basket, the monthly variation was 0.18% and the annual variation was 6.21% (+8 bp compared to August). Within its components, the annual inflation of processed foods and meat increased. While, perishables showed a reduction in annual inflation.
• Regarding the core basket, excluding food, an increase was also observed, reaching 4.94% (+8 bp compared to August). This outcome reflected the behavior of the administered prices and goods sub-baskets.
• Administered prices posted 5.3% annual inflation (+33 bp compared to August). The increase was explained mainly by electricity, due to a relevant base effect in September 2024. Goods showed a further upturn, stronger than in previous months. Their annual variation reached 2.3% (+31 bp compared to August). Items explaining this acceleration included: beer and personal care products.
• September inflation reinforces the cautious stance adopted by the Board of the Central Bank in recent policy meetings, not only because headline inflation has increased for three consecutive months and stands above 5.0%, but especially due to the persistence and rigidity in non-food inflation and evidence of some demand pressures.

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