Colombia | Inflation rises for the fourth consecutive month and reaches 5.5% in October

Summary

October's inflation surprised to the upside, with broad-based pressures stemming from both the food and non-food baskets. The annual inflation rate rose to 5.51%, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance and signaling that interest rates will likely remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Key points

• Key points:
• The monthly inflation rate of 0.18% exceeded market expectations, driving the annual rate to 5.51%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of increases.
• Although monthly food inflation was negative (-0.35%), the annual rate accelerated sharply to 6.64% (+43 bps compared to September). This was primarily due to a base effect. Key pressures came from perishables (onions, potatoes) and meats (beef), partially offset by declines in tomatoes and other vegetables.
• The annual non-food inflation also increased, reaching 5.25% (+31 bps compared to September). This result was mainly driven by the behavior of the regulated items and goods sub-baskets.
• Regulated items recorded a sharp rebound (6.1% annually), largely due to electricity and water prices, also influenced by base effects.
• Goods inflation showed another uptick, similar in magnitude to the previous month. Its annual rate reached 2.6%, mainly driven by new and used private vehicles, also due to a base effect.

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