Mexico | Private spending sluggishness in January

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.7% MoM decline in January (real, sa), extending December’s weakness, driven by lower spending on goods (-0.5% MoM).

Key points

• Key points:
• By subcomponents, tourism-related segments showed positive performance: hotel spending grew 1.7% MoM and restaurant consumption increased 1.6% MoM.
• By type of establishment, online spending contracted (-)19.6% MoM, the largest drop since November 2018, while spending in physical stores rose 0.9% MoM, the first positive reading since August.
• Gasoline spending fell (-)1.0% MoM and stood 9.4% below its January 2025 level, marking its tenth consecutive year-over-year decline (-9.4%).
• We expect consumption to record positive but moderate growth throughout 2026, supported by the gradual easing of external uncertainty and the steady improvement in income driven by the recovery in real wage mass.

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