Mexico | Temporary slowdown in consumption in February; Bajío-Occidente effect

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)3.5% MoM decline in February (real, sa), with contractions in both goods and services segments.

Key points

• Key points:
• The goods component fell (-)9.7% MoM, the largest contraction since the pandemic (April 2020), while services recorded a decrease of (-)1.3% MoM.
• We estimate that private spending in February was affected by disruptions to economic activity stemming from episodes of violence and road blockades, particularly in the Bajío-Occidente region.
• By subcomponents, spending on hotels (-8.1% MoM), restaurants (-2.5%), and entertainment (-7.8%) declined, while food (0.7%) and healthcare (0.8%) showed growth.
• We estimate that the disruptions to activity observed during February represented a transitory shock to private spending, limited to the affected regions. We anticipate that private spending will continue to contribute positively to economic growth in 2026, supported by a gradual improvement in the real wage bill.

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