Mexico | The target of a primary surplus was not met in 2025

Summary

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

Key points

• Key points:
• The HBPSBR was higher than in 2024 because the domestic component of debt showed an increase of 1.8 percentage points of GDP while the foreign component registered a decrease of 1.2 percentage points.
• Excluding federal government support for Pemex debt repurchase of MXN 253.8 billion, oil revenues contributed to total revenue being lower by MXN 80.7 billion than the program's target for 2025.

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