Published on Monday, February 2, 2026

Peru | Inflation begins to move closer to the midpoint of the target range

Summary

Lima’s CPI rose 0.10% m/m in January 2026, in line with consensus. Annual inflation reached 1.7%, still within the target range. The monthly increase was driven by higher food prices, while transport prices fell seasonally. Core inflation edged up to 2.0%.

Key points

Key points:
In January, monthly inflation was driven by higher food prices (poultry products, fruits, and tubers), while transport prices fell seasonally after the December holiday-related increase.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.04% m/m, pushing its annual rate from 1.8% to 2.0% in January.
Looking ahead, annual inflation is expected to trend higher in 2026 as the effects of the currency appreciation and the decline in international input prices, including oil, gradually fade.
An additional upside risk stems from warmer-than-usual weather conditions from March onward, which could affect the supply and prices of domestically produced food.
In this environment, we expect inflation to close 2026 around 2.5%, within the target range, and the central bank to keep the policy rate at 4.25%, as limited space for rate cuts remains amid inflation risks, activity near potential, and heightened electoral uncertainty.